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Challenge Survival Calculator
10,000 evaluation attempts — simulation under your assumptions, not a prediction.
Free tier — Clarity, not certainty.
Context, not arrows.
Everything MoTradeSystems gives away free, in one place: a regime read, two interactive risk tools, a worked example, and the field guide. Nothing here hands you entries, exits, or targets — the tools show you context so you size your own risk.
Today's market regime — updated every trading morning. Context, not advice. How to read this →
Calculators
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Drawdown-Survival Calculator
Consecutive losses your prop account survives — loss figures only.
Everything free, in one place
Free regime script + manual
TradingView · free, no signup
A non-directional read — calm, elevated, or stressed. No repaint, no prediction.
A day in the panels
Worked example · illustrative
One illustrative morning in the panels — no performance promise.
The 5 Risk Mistakes field guide
Free PDF · email
Five risk mistakes that end prop accounts, plus the pre-trade checklist.
The Risk Report
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Try it: how long does your account survive a losing streak?
Your account & sizing rules
Daily loss limitThe most your firm lets you lose per day — straight from its rules.
Instrument & execution
Glossary — every term in one sentence
- Daily Loss Limit
- The most your prop firm lets you lose in a single day before the account is breached — from your firm's rules, in $ or % of account size.
- Trailing / Max-DD Buffer
- The dollar distance between your current equity and the account's trailing-drawdown floor — the total cushion you have left before the account is gone.
- Safety Buffer
- The share of your daily loss limit you deliberately refuse to touch (default 20 %). The calculator plans with only the rest — so one worse-than-expected fill doesn't turn a planned day into a breach.
- Daily-Budget Fraction
- How much of your remaining daily budget you put at risk on one single trade. Lower = smaller positions, but more consecutive losses survivable.
- Trailing Fraction
- How much of your remaining trailing-drawdown cushion counts as the cap for a single trade. Each trade risks a fraction of whichever is tighter: daily budget or this cap. Lower = more conservative, but slower position growth.
- Per-Trade Stop
- Your stop distance in points for one trade — how far price can go against you before you're out.
- Slippage Surcharge
- Extra points added on top of your stop, because stop orders in fast markets fill worse than the stop price. The calculator always books this worst case, not the friendly case.
- Round-Turn Cost
- Commission plus spread for one contract, in and out, in $. Real money that leaves your account on every trade — win or lose.
- Geometric Shrink Factor
- The multiplier applied to your next risk after every loss. Because it's below 1, a losing streak shrinks toward your limit instead of walking straight into it.
- Hard Stop
- The point where this calculator ends the trading day: 80 % of the effective daily budget is spent. Stopping before the firm's limit is the difference between a bad day and a dead account.
- Effective Daily Budget
- Your firm's daily loss limit minus your own safety buffer — the amount the sizing actually works with.
Consecutive losses before you hit 80 % of your daily budget
27
This streak has used $325 of risk budget — 16.9 % of your hard-stop — and the same climbing curve reaches it by trade 27.
Geometric shrink factor per loss: 0.9625 · effective daily budget $2,400 · hard stop at $1,920
Sizing warning: from trade 25, the risk budget no longer funds a single contract (worst case ≈ $45 per contract). The instrument is too large for this budget — a micro contract keeps the math executable.
Each row is one losing trade in a row — not a calendar day. The streak ends when 80 % of the effective daily budget is spent.
| Loss # | Remaining daily budget | Trailing limit share | Risk budget for this trade | Contracts | Risk budget used so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $2,400 | $450 | 112.50 | 2 | $113 |
| 2 | $2,288 | $433 | 108.28 | 2 | $221 |
| 3 | $2,179 | $417 | 104.22 | 2 | $325 |
| 4 | $2,075 | $401 | 100.31 | 2 | $425 |
| 5 | $1,975 | $386 | 96.55 | 2 | $522 |
| 6 | $1,878 | $372 | 92.93 | 2 | $615 |
| 7 | $1,785 | $358 | 89.45 | 1 | $704 |
| 8 | $1,696 | $344 | 86.09 | 1 | $790 |
| 9 | $1,610 | $331 | 82.86 | 1 | $873 |
| 10 | $1,527 | $319 | 79.76 | 1 | $953 |
| 11 | $1,447 | $307 | 76.76 | 1 | $1,030 |
| 12 | $1,370 | $296 | 73.89 | 1 | $1,104 |
| 13 | $1,296 | $284 | 71.12 | 1 | $1,175 |
| 14 | $1,225 | $274 | 68.45 | 1 | $1,243 |
| 15 | $1,157 | $264 | 65.88 | 1 | $1,309 |
| 16 | $1,091 | $254 | 63.41 | 1 | $1,372 |
| 17 | $1,028 | $244 | 61.03 | 1 | $1,433 |
| 18 | $967 | $235 | 58.74 | 1 | $1,492 |
| 19 | $908 | $226 | 56.54 | 1 | $1,549 |
| 20 | $851 | $218 | 54.42 | 1 | $1,603 |
| 21 | $797 | $210 | 52.38 | 1 | $1,656 |
| 22 | $744 | $202 | 50.42 | 1 | $1,706 |
| 23 | $694 | $194 | 48.53 | 1 | $1,755 |
| 24 | $645 | $187 | 46.71 | 1 | $1,801 |
| 25 | $599 | $180 | 44.95 | 0 | $1,846 |
| 26 | $554 | $173 | 43.27 | 0 | $1,889 |
| 27 | $511 | $167 | 41.65 | 0 | $1,931 |
Illustrative / educational — simplified risk model, not the full engine, not investment advice. Outputs are loss and risk figures only; the model illustrates how geometric sizing bounds a losing streak. It does not prevent losses.
What the free regime read tells you
When to run smaller
Elevated volatility regimes are where drawdowns compound. The read gives you a defensible reason to throttle size.
What it will never do
No entries, no exits, no targets. If a tool promises those from one panel, it's selling certainty that doesn't exist.
When you want more than the free tier
The free read shows you the regime. If you want the full context layer, the paid modules add 8 macro sources across 4 pillars — plus order-flow confirmation in the bundle. And for the prop-firm research, there's the Pro founding list.
Education/analysis — not investment advice.
Backtest ≠ Live. Clarity, not certainty.